10 hurdles Windows 8 must clear to succeed

Takeaway: Microsoft has launched the Windows 8 Release Preview and is shooting for RTM in two months. Here are some major obstacles in the path of the OS.

When Windows 7 launched, it was a huge success for Microsoft. Its biggest challenges were the lingering anger around Vista and the satisfaction with XP. Windows 8 is being launched into a totally different set of market conditions and with the ambitious goal of unifying all form factors onto one operating system. Here are 10 challenges Windows 8 will need to conquer to be a success.

1: The Metro UI

Make no mistake about it: An awful lot of people are pretty unhappy with Metro. From my use of Metro on a Windows 8 VM and a Windows Phone 7 device for more than a year, I can tell you that there is a night-and-day difference between Metro on a desktop and Metro on a touch screen. Not only is Metro really different from the traditional Windows UI, but even in the Consumer Preview, it feels like the mouse is a second-class citizen to touch. Unless Microsoft can get this right, a lot of first impressions of Metro will be bad.

2: PC OEMs — can they finally get tablets right?

Microsoft’s fate is closely tied to the ability of its partners to get things right. The problem is, Windows 8 is as much (if not more so) of an OS for mobile form factors with touch UIs (tablets, smartphones) as it is for desktops and laptops. And this is the exact market that PC OEMs have proven bad at penetrating for around 10 years now. Sure, there have been some successes (like the iPaq line of PDAs). But there have been many more instances where the PC OEMs just could not figure out how to give customers what they wanted.

3: iPad, iPhones, and Android

Windows 8 on tablets is going head-to-head with the well-established iPad. In fact, the iPad is so dominant in tablets Android can’t get much traction at all, despite its success in phones. All the same, Microsoft is trying to push Windows 8 tablets. On the phone front, WP7 has been facing a huge uphill battle against iPhone and Android, despite much critical acclaim and a vocal and enthusiastic user base. Windows 8 on a phone will not be much different from WP7 to most users. If WP7 has been having it tough, Windows 8 is not likely to do much better in phones. Windows 8 for mobile form factors feels like a solution in search of a problem for many users.

4: Distrust of cloud

Windows 8 leverages cloud technologies in a great many ways, and it makes the OS easy to use. It’s pretty slick to sign into a brand new Windows 8 install and have all your contacts there, Facebook integration, etc. At the same time, this integration will raise all sorts of red flags to corporate IT departments, which will want to either cripple the devices or take a wait-and-see approach to moving to Windows 8, looking for folks to show exactly what data goes where and how… and how to stop it.

5: No Active Directory support on ARM

Windows 8’s big market advantage should be that it can allow tablets and phones to work as a seamless part of Active Directory, but this is not supported on ARM architecture. While Microsoft is giving corporate IT admins ways of managing Windows 8 devices, IT departments tend to prefer consolidation, not proliferation of management tools. Microsoft is going to have to work hard to prove to IT departments that they do not need Active Directory integration for ARM devices.

6: Brand new app market

The only way — other than developers testing — to get Windows 8-native applications (Metro applications) is through the app store. The question is, “Will the app store launch with a good number of apps?” Microsoft really surprised me with how many apps WP7 launched with, and it has been even more aggressive about getting apps into the Windows 8 app market early. And anything it can do to allow an easy port of WP7 apps to Windows 8 will be a huge help, especially if it is “no work required,” since the WP7 app store is around the 100,000 app mark at the time of this writing.

7: Microsoft Office

Microsoft has been taking steps to bring Office to other platforms (notably iOS), and when it does, that will reduce Windows lock-in quite a bit. It is also working hard to expand its Web reach with Office. Add it up, and users’ biggest reason to need Windows goes away, unless they depend on plug-ins that won’t work on other platforms.

8: The economy

The economy still stinks. A large part of getting a new OS into the market depends on people buying PCs, and a lot of folks are choosing to do without a new computer because of the cost.

9: Longer refresh cycles

While computers keep getting faster, most applications are not getting more demanding. It used to be that you needed to be on the cutting edge of hardware to keep up with software, but no more. Now, even budget hardware from years ago is still more than adequate to run most applications. That means that the refresh cycle that used to be three years is being stretched to four, five, and beyond. To make it worse, the companies that skipped Vista are now moving (or recently moved) to Windows 7, and they’re not in a hurry to do another migration.

10: Windows 7

Microsoft is its own biggest competitor with Windows 8 on the desktop and laptop. Windows 7 has been a big success, and for good reason: It delivers on the promises Microsoft has been making now for so long regarding security and reliability. Windows 7 finally “just works.” All the consumers and IT departments that have been clinging to XP far past its prime will be doing the same with Windows 7, and Microsoft is not likely to get them to jump onto the Windows 8 train easily.

10 reasons why Windows 8 may appeal to consumers

Takeaway: Will Windows 8 be a hit with consumers? Maybe. Here are a few things that could win them over.

We have talked a lot about how Windows 8 will mean significant changes for software developersand how Windows 8 will affect (or not affect) businesses. But it’s important to keep in mind that plenty of Windows computers get sold directly to consumers, and those are the sales that are most likely threatened by non-Windows devices right now, like smartphones and tablets. Here are some Windows 8 features that consumers may find interesting.

1: Games

One of the things that struck me about Windows Phone 7 was just how many games were quickly brought over from Xbox Live. Windows 8, with a similar infrastructure under the hood, looks like it will be the same way. I have always been a sucker for unique, quirky games, and by bringing the Xbox Live game set over, we should see lots of those for a low cost on Windows 8.

2: Tablets

Tablets may not be for everyone, but if you are or may become a tablet user, Windows 8 has appeal. It is tough to see how you wouldn’t want to consider a tablet that can potentially run all your existing applications (assuming you get an x86/x64 tablet). Microsoft has worked hard to give Windows 8 a touch-friendly UI, and having used the MetroUI on a Windows Phone 7 device for more than a year now, I think it is a great touch system. I’m eager to use it on a tablet.

3: Messaging

Windows 8 integrates messaging from common providers like Facebook, Live, and Twitter into one spot. It is nice not to have to go to different Web sites and leave a page open to monitor various data streams or get a bunch of third-party applications to do the same. The integrated messaging system is very slick and builds off of the unified contacts system. This is another feature borrowed from Windows Phone 7, and it is a great one.

4: App store

Windows has had an official app store in the past, though it was not terribly obvious and few people used it. With Windows 8, the app store is hard to miss. Not only is it the easiest way to load Metro applications onto Windows 8 devices, it will handle updates automatically too. The days of having out-of-date software or dealing with a zillion update applications is finally over! And if you need to replace a machine, there’s no need to dig up piles of installation discs or remember what apps you installed and downloaded from what sites and hope you still have serial numbers — you can easily reinstall them from the store.

5: Reduced security risk exposure, increased stability

The WinRT API that Metro applications are built on top of is designed to severely limit what Metro applications can do to the underlying system, as well as to user data and with each other. Internet Explorer running in Metro (but not the traditional Desktop) will not allow third-party plug-ins to run at all, either. This may be a curveball for developers, but for users it means that the risk of malware is significantly decreased. It will be very tough for applications to damage the system or affect user data maliciously or inadvertently.

6: Unified UI

Microsoft has been moving more and more of its systems to the Metro UI. With Windows 8, all the big form factors (PC, phone, tablet, and video game consoles) will be using the same UI principles and styling. That makes it a bit easier to get a handle on how to use new devices and new applications across platforms.

7: Cloud sync

Built into Windows 8 is cloud-based synchronization. By signing into a Windows 8 machine with a Live ID, all sorts of unified data is available across devices. For example, when I signed into a fresh Windows 8 Consumer Preview installation, all my Twitter, Facebook, and Live Messenger accounts were immediately established because I use the same Live ID on my phone. Changes I make to this data will instantly be reflected across the board as well. That’s pretty nice. It is especially helpful when replacing a device, because you don’t have to reestablish all these connections or re-import (or re-create) data.

8: Integration with services and applications

As I’ve mentioned, there is some neat integration around messaging and data in Windows 8. The integration goes much deeper, though. For example, My Pictures in Windows used to be nothing more than a directory that got special treatment from Windows Explorer. Now it has the notion of Albums and Libraries, which represent where the pictures come from. Services like Flickr and Facebook are integrated by default as Libraries, and third-party applications can tap into this functionality as well.

Likewise, the People Hub collects information about people you know from a variety of sources (Facebook, email accounts, LinkedIn, etc.) and puts it all in one place. Instead of an application-centric view of data, Windows 8 presents a data-centric view, minimizing the number of places you need to go to get access to data, while at the same time increasing the number of places it can be used.

9: Email

Windows Phone 7 gets a lot of kudos for its excellent email client. This email client has been brought over to Windows 8 and scaled up to the larger screen size. Unlike some previous versions of free email clients bundled into Windows, it is quite capable and for many people will be a significant upgrade. Like other parts of Windows 8, it provides a concentration of data from different places (in this case, email accounts) and presents a unified view that makes it easy to work with and respond to emails.

10: Simplicity

One of the key things in Windows 8 is that if you stick with Metro applications, it is a very simple system to deal with. Power users will not necessarily be thrilled about losing the control that they are used to (although they can still have it if they head to the Desktop on x86/x64 machines). But those who just want to sit down and “get stuff done” will appreciate how the OS gets out of the way and lets you do what you want to do.

Things like the highly reduced maintenance of applications (thanks to the app store), concentration of all email in one place (rather than the need for a native client and a few Web clients), and messaging add up to a simplified experience. You’re no longer switching between dozens of applications and Web pages but working around a small number of Hubs on the system based on your current needs. It is a refreshing change from the current overload of system tray notifications, buzzers, noises, and flashing taskbar icons that typify the current Windows system.

10 reasons Windows 8 will be painful for developers

Takeaway: If you plan to develop Windows 8 native apps, be prepared for some hurdles. Justin James looks at some of the biggest problems you’re likely to face.

Since the release of the Windows 8 Developer Preview, people have had a lot to say about the experience of playing with it. But few folks are talking about the changes it represents for developers. Windows 8 is the biggest update to the Windows development model since the move from Windows 3.X to Windows 95. While there are lots of good things, there are also a lot of pain points. If you are looking to develop Windows 8 native applications with the new Metro UI and WinRT API, be careful of these 10 things.

1: Market reboot

If you want your applications to be fully compatible with Windows 8 (including running on ARM CPUs), you’ll need to do a full rewrite in Metro/WinRT. This may be great for developers looking to break into markets with established players. But if you are the established player, you are suddenly back at square one.

2: The asynchronous model

Windows 8 development is highly dependent upon asynchronous operations for anything that is long running. While that may be a cute trick in some scenarios, it is downright frustrating in others (like trying to download a file). It isn’t just the work needed to handle the async call; it’s things like error handling and reporting problems back to the user. It requires a whole new approach to the UI from what developers (especially WinForms developers) are used to.

3: Lack of direct disk access

Windows 8 cuts off direct access to the system in quite a few ways, but the one that will hurt typical developers the most is the lack of disk access. Windows 8 follows an extreme isolation model for applications, and if your application requires access to data outside its own confined little world (including networked services you can access), you can forget about porting it to Windows 8.

4: Touch UI paradigm

Unless you have been writing a lot of mobile apps, shifting to the new UI style, which is designed for touch interaction, is going to pretty tough. It took me a long time to get a feel for what works well and what doesn’t. To make things more difficult, what looks and works well on a screen using a mouse and keyboard can be a poor experience with touch, and things that work well with touch often are a struggle to use on the screen. It’s a tricky balancing act, and as the uproar over the Metro UI in Windows 8 shows, even Microsoft is struggling to get it right despite having had a few years of Metro experience.

5: Playing by Microsoft’s app store rules

If you want to be using the Microsoft app store, you will need to learn to play by its rules. While the rules are fairly reasonable, it will be a jarring experience if it is anything like the WP7 App Hub. For starters, Microsoft rigorously inspects the application and looks for all sorts of things, like unhandled exceptions and circular UI paths. Although this ensures a high quality app, it can be a surprise to developers. In addition, you need to work with an approval process. The details of the Microsoft application store are still under wraps, but recent experience with WP7 suggests that it won’t be fun.

6: Heavy emphasis on cloud

While there is no mandate to use the cloud, Web services, and other off-premise techniques and technologies, it is most definitely encouraged. Things like automatic syncing of settings and data between devices (regardless of how it is done) will become the rule, not the exception, and users will be expecting it. Windows 8 makes this easy (you can have your locally saved information synced automatically with Live), but you will want to be judicious about how you do it for sensitive data. Encryption and other privacy and security techniques will become more important than ever.

7: Shift to “contracts” and “interfaces” for interop

One unique aspect of the Windows 8 paradigm is the idea that applications can provide services to the OS (such as acting as a source of contacts or pictures), as opposed to just dumping the data into a common directory. This allows all sorts of sweet application concepts. But even though this is easy at the technical level, it’s difficult to figure out how to leverage at the conceptual level.

8: Market uncertainty

Now we get into the more high-level pains. Microsoft is clearly pushing Windows 8 for tablets and maybe even phones. Right now, we’re seeing Android struggle in the tablet space, and at the same time, it seems like the Metro UI is universally panned by people who have tried the Developer Preview. But again, the Metro experience is geared for touch, and the Preview is usable only on a virtual machine, so the true tablet experience will be much different.

In addition, the people who have seen the Developer Preview simply do not represent the typical user one bit. Will the market adopt Windows 8 or reject it? Will Microsoft cave in and let people skip the Metro UI entirely? Will the tablet market for Windows 8 take off? These are all questions that won’t be answered until it is far too late to be a first mover in the market. If you are going to bet on Windows 8, you simply can’t properly assess the risks right now.

9: Lack of tablet hardware

Speaking of the disliked Developer Preview, not having tablets to try Windows 8 on is a major problem. There is just no good way right now to get an idea of what the user experience will be like for your applications on those tablets. Not just in terms of the UI either, but of performance. Can the tablet CPUs run your app well? Is it too “chatty” for a device on a cellular connection? Are you using more storage than makes sense for the typical tablet we’ll see? Without a few tablet models easily available, we don’t know the answers here.

10: The trail of dead tech

This is the one that really breaks my heart. Microsoft has a history of pushing a technology as “the next big thing” and then leaving it dying on the vine a few years later. We don’t know if Microsoft will back off its Windows 8 strategy before launch, right after launch (Kin), or a few years down the road (Zune, Silverlight). If the new Windows 8 paradigm is not a success, Microsoft may very well change course in a way that renders all your hard work on Windows 8 native applications a waste of time.

Five free replacements for Windows Explorer

Five free replacements for Windows Explorer

Takeaway: If you’ve ever wished for more or better file management features than Windows Explorer offers, these free alternatives might be the answer.

I must say I’m not a fan of Windows Explorer as a file manager. When using it for simple file management, and it starts up the old Not Responding behavior, it can be a nightmare of frustration. This is a pain because Explorer is so interconnected with so many other tools. That’s why I often rely upon one of the free replacements for the default Windows file manager. There are quite a few. Here are my top five. Give these a try and more than likely you will come out with one you like.

1: CubicExplorer

CubicExplorer is a fine example of how to make a full-featured, yet lightweight file manager for Windows. This particular file manager offers some great features: tabbed exploring, bookmark files and folders, search filters, a built-in text editor, file preview, transparency levels for different programs, themes, shortcut key support, breadcrumb navigation, session saving, and much more. CubicExplorer is broken up into three panels: Main navigation window, Navigation tree, and Filter/Preview/Dropstack panel. The Dropstack panel allows you to drag and drop files/folders into groups for temporary quick access.

Figure A

2: Explorer++

What I like about the Explorer++ file manager is that it’s not required to install, so you can run it from a flash drive. No more having to put up with wonky Explorer on your machine or any other machine. Pop this tool on a flash drive and carry it around with you — you’ll have a file manager that will work when Explorer is flaking out. Explorer++ features:

• Complete portability
• Tabbed browsing
• Real-time previews as files are selected
• Easy-to-remember keyboard shortcuts
• Customizable user interface
• Full drag-and-drop support
• Advanced file operations

Figure B

3: Xplorer2

Xplorer2 comes in two flavors: free and not free. The free version (called the Lite version) doesn’t have all the features of the paid version (you’ll be missing Advanced Searching and Customer Support) but is still a solid file manager. You can browse the entire shell namespace, preview docs/pics/music/video, view side by side, filter using wildcards, synchronize folders, and obtain more information per file/folder than you get with the default file manager.

Figure C

4: NexusFile

NexusFile brings a bit of style to Windows. Not only is it skinnable, it also offers some great built-in features: tabbed browsing, built-in FTP, built-in archive, advanced rename, Split/Join File, and much more. NexusFile might well be one of the most powerful Windows file managers you will come across. Its only downfall is that the interface could take some time for new users to grow accustomed to. But for anyone who has used a typical FTP client (or an older file manager), the learning curve will be nonexistent.

Figure D

5: Q-Dir

As the site says Warning: Once Q-Dir, always Q-Dir!!! Whether that applies to you will depend upon what you want from a file manager. If you want a crazy amount of interface control, Q-Dirmight be the perfect fit for you. Q-Dir offers a large number of preconfigured viewing options to satisfy just about any need. You want four panes? You got it! That is, after all, what the Q stands for: quad. You can install this file manager on your hard disk or as a portable solution. It offers preview filters, drag and drop, clipboard, exporting to XLS/CVS/TST/HTML, screen magnifier, color filter, highlight filter, and much more.

Figure E

Choices

If there is a feature you’ve always wanted in a file manager for Windows, it probably exists in a different tool. The five free alternatives we’ve looked at here represent a nice cross section of the possibilities.

Five free antivirus tools for Windows

Five free antivirus tools for Windows

Takeaway: The field of AV solutions has gotten crowded, making it tough to sort through your options. Here are several solid (and free) tools worth a look.

Without antivirus protection, a Windows machine is a ticking time bomb. Of course, there are hundreds (if not thousands) of possible antivirus solutions for the Windows operating system. Some are worthless and some are viruses themselves. But others are pretty darned dependable. I wanted to share my favorite free real-time antivirus solutions for the Windows operating system. You might already have a favorite, but it’s always good to have another option in your back pocket. Just remember to have only one installed at a time.

1: Avast Free

For the longest time I recommended AVG Free to clients. That time has come and gone. Now, when a client needs a free go-to antivirus software package, I always recommend Avast Free Edition. Avast has a ton of features for a piece of free software. But more important, it does a great job protecting PCs from those nasty infections. It also does a good job blocking spyware. The free version is limited to virus and malware protection, but what more do you need? Well, if you need online protection (such as safe shopping), ID protection, and advanced firewall, you’ll need to drop some coin for the professional version.

2: Microsoft Security Essentials

If you or your clients are looking for a bare bones antivirus solution that does one thing and one thing only (but does it very well), download and install this outstanding free Microsoft product. What I really like about Security Essentials is that once installed, it’s unobtrusive. You will hardly know it’s there. Unlike some solutions that bring your machine to a grinding halt, Security Essentials uses little CPU and can do a scan without your even realizing it’s happening. Security Essentials is also one of the easiest to install, configure, and use. So for those less-than-savvy end users, this might be the one you want.

3: Avira Free Antivirus

Just two clicks to install, and your machine has some basic, yet solid antivirus protection. No, Avira Free will not protect you from phishing like its premium brother. Nor does it have a gaming mode like its premium upgrade. But Avira Free will do a great job of protecting your machine from viruses, with an easy-to-use interface and an incredibly fast scanning engine. In fact, this might well be the fastest antivirus scan you will ever use. What I like about this entry is that it checks for viruses, Trojans, AND rootkits. Not many free antivirus solutions go that far.

4: BitDefender

BitDefender is one of those solutions that few know about but more should. It’s an outstanding solution that has the standard features (virus scan/removal, scheduled scan, immediate scan, quarantine, reporting). It’s one of the on-demand solutions. BitDefender does not include any real-time features but makes up for it with a strong scanning engine that can be scheduled for use at any time. What I like about on-demand scanning is that it doesn’t interfere with email or Web browsing. When push comes to shove, I always trust the BitDefender line of tools — and the free version is no exception.

5: Comodo Antivirus

Comodo Antivirus is probably the least well known tool on this list, but that doesn’t make it a lesser product. In fact, it could be a strong solution if you’re looking for guesswork-free protection. Comodo automates the decision-making process for blocking or allowing trusted or untrusted files. If anything is questionable, it’s sandboxed for your examination. Comodo tracks and protects from malware as well as viruses. And with an adjustable security level (via a simple-to-use slider), it’s easy to modify the level of protection you want on a desktop. Comodo was also designed with optimization in mind. Although not as unnoticeable as Microsoft Security Essentials, Comodo does do a great job of remaining in the background.

10 things to love about Windows 8

10 things to love about Windows 8

Takeaway: Here are some number of promising features and positive changes that Windows 8 offers.

Windows 8

Now that the Windows 8 Developer Preview has been available for a while, it is easier to take a step back and evaluate it without the powerful emotions that strike most people the first time they deal with it. Looking at it from a long-distance perspective, there’s a lot to like about Windows 8, especially if you are ready to cut the cord from an installed desktop application base and transition to Web applications and Windows 8 native applications. Here are 10 things I think are great about Windows 8.

1: It’s designed for tablets and touch

Microsoft is working hard to make Windows 8 work well with tablets and the touch UI paradigm, to the point of alienating traditional desktop users. It remains to be seen how Microsoft will respond to criticism over the Metro UI. But I can tell you that after using a phone with the Metro UI for well over half a year now, I think it is extremely effective for touch, and I would love to have a tablet running Windows 8.

2: Apps “share” data

One of the big changes in the application development model is that native Windows 8 apps (those using the new Metro UI and WinRT API) really do not directly communicate with each other, even through the file system, except via carefully defined interfaces. While this handcuffs developers a bit, it means that when applications do share data, Windows is aware of how they do it and makes it easy. For example, you could have an application that handles images and use it to share the pictures with, say, an application to upload them to Facebook. That unleashes a lot more power for developers because it means that applications from different vendors will work together seamlessly, and the developers do not even have to write anything specific for the application theirs works with.

3: The apps can be integrated into the OS

Just as the applications can “share” with each other, they can do the same thing with Windows itself. Again, this allows some really neat integrations to be done without much work by application makers. You can see things like a new social networking application come out and within weeks, Windows will be able to use your friends who are on it in its contact list, or the pictures can go into your picture gallery. The possibilities are endless.

4: It offers ARM support

While the ARM CPUs may not be for everyone or every purpose, lots of mobile vendors have a deep commitment to that platform and understand it well. The ARM devices will not be able to run legacy Windows applications, but they will run the Windows 8 native apps without a hitch. That’s great news for hardware makers, software developers, and users.

5: It beefs up security

The new programming model for Windows 8 native applications is extraordinarily secure. While I am sure that exploits will be found, it will be difficult for the native applications to break free of their chains. Microsoft has really flipped it around. Instead of allowing everything and slowly adding restrictions over the years (and breaking applications in the process, like XP SP2 and Vista did), it’s starting from an “allow nothing” stance.

6: App markets will benefit developers and users

Application markets are nothing new. Even Vista had one (although no one seems to remember it). With Windows 8 native applications, Microsoft is making the application market the primary way of getting apps onto the computer, much like Windows Phone 7. That’s great news for developers who need to get some more visibility for their applications and who do not want to deal with payments processing and such, especially for low-priced apps. And the application market is great for users, too. As we’ve seen, app markets encourage lower prices, and Microsoft will surely apply the same strict quality control that it has to the Windows Phone 7 app market.

7: System restore is easier

Microsoft has built new utilities into Windows 8 that makes it much easier than ever to send the system back to “out of the box,” while preserving your data. Providing a more appliance-like experience is critical for the typical user, and the help desk will appreciate it too.

8: Cloud sync is everywhere

While not everyone is in love with the cloud as an idea, Windows 8 has great facilities for allowing applications and users to automatically sync data between devices using the cloud. That’s great for users who can seamlessly transition between their tablet and desktop PC (and perhaps their phone), as well as for tech support, who can just replace a broken device instead of worrying about data loss.

9: It offers simplified administration and configuration

The Control Panel has been stripped down to the bare essentials, and you can’t even think about tasks like registry editing, defragging, etc., from the Metro UI. (You can do these tasks through the legacy desktop, if needed, but that won’t work for ARM devices.) Throughout Windows 8, a primary theme has been giving the user a more appliance-like “It just works” experience. Power users might howl about it, but the truth is, the Windows experience is still far more complex than the average user wants to deal with. Windows 8 is a great move in the right direction for those users.

10: System stability is improved

Windows 7 has really set the standard for system reliability. Short of hardware or driver problems, the old blue screen of death is almost never seen anymore. Windows 8 takes this to the next level. The same changes to the application development model also improve system stability. Applications can’t run over each other’s data easily, and the new WinRT API just does not allow the kinds of shenanigans that have caused unstable systems over the years. If you stick with native Windows 8 applications, reboots (other than for patching) and crashes should be extraordinarily rare.